Potential War Pause Fuels BTC Rally as Shorts Get Squeezed — Can Bitcoin Hit $80K in 5 Days?

On March 23, U.S. President Donald Trump posted an announcement on the Truth Social platform, stating that the U.S. will temporarily suspend military strikes on Iran for five days. According to him, the two sides have held “positive and constructive” negotiations. This move inadvertently triggered a wave of short position liquidations in the crypto market, pushing Bitcoin prices up by more than 4%, approaching key resistance levels, and sparking expectations of reaching the $80,000 milestone in the short term.

Market Reaction to War Pause Announcement

On Monday, March 23, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had very good and productive discussions toward reducing tensions in the Middle East. In this announcement, he also stated that he had directed the Department of Defense to postpone all offensive operations against Iranian energy and infrastructure facilities for five days, depending on the outcome of further negotiations.

Immediately following this news, global financial markets reacted positively as risk sentiment partially improved. Bitcoin surged over 4% shortly after, reaching approximately $71.5K, reflecting capital flowing back into high-volatility assets. Investors believe that the geopolitical situation has cooled down in the short term, at least for the next five days.

BTC price 1h chart. Source: TradingView

This development highlights the increasingly clear influence of macro factors—especially geopolitical tensions—on high-volatility markets like crypto. As uncertainty decreases, investors tend to shift toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, triggering rapid and powerful price rallies, particularly in a high-leverage market environment.

Liquidations Spike as Shorts Get Wiped Out

Bitcoin’s recent rally was significantly amplified by the liquidation of leveraged positions in the derivatives market, alongside spot market inflows. As BTC prices rose rapidly following the news of the tension pause, short positions began to face forced liquidations, compelling traders to buy back the asset to close their positions, which in turn created additional buying pressure that pushed prices even higher.

According to data from Glassnode, the total value of liquidated positions in the past 24 hours reached approximately $570.85 million, with $366.87 million coming from short positions—significantly higher than the $203.98 million from long positions.

Liquidation heatmap in 24 hours. Source: Glassnode

The data shows increasing pressure on the “bears” as BTC remains on an upward trajectory with no signs of short-term correction. Simultaneously, significant liquidity clusters still exist above current price levels, with short positions concentrated around the $71,900–$72,200 area. If the geopolitical situation continues to cool, the market could witness further short squeeze waves as overhead leveraged positions continue to be liquidated. However, with the agreement still under negotiation, the market still faces the risk that this factor may only be temporary.

Key Levels and Signals to Watch

Following the sharp rally, Bitcoin is now entering a sensitive price zone where liquidity factors and market structure begin to play a more crucial role than the news itself. The $74,000–$76,000 range is being viewed as the immediate resistance zone, where selling pressure from profit-taking and newly opened short positions may emerge. If Bitcoin can break through this zone with high volume and maintain its momentum, it will solidify the short-term uptrend.

Conversely, the $69,500–$70,000 zone is currently a vital short-term support. Losing this level could trigger continued selling pressure, pushing the price back to test the nearest bottom around $67,000–$68,000. In addition to price levels, several market signals to watch include:

• Funding rates in the derivatives market: If they rise too high, it may signal that the market is overly leaning toward longs, posing a risk of correction.
• Open interest: A sharp increase accompanying price volatility could indicate that leveraged capital is driving the trend.
• Liquidation clusters: Liquidity clusters above and below the current price may continue to act as “magnets” for price movement.

These signals, combined with price action at support and resistance zones, will determine whether the current rally can be sustained or if it is merely a short-term squeeze.

Can Bitcoin Reach $80K in 5 Days?

The $80,000 mark within five days is a possible scenario given the market’s strong reaction to geopolitical news. However, the level of certainty remains limited as developments related to the Middle East conflict have not been confirmed by all parties. The announcement of the military activity pause from the U.S. is currently a one-sided signal, and the reaction from Iran and other involved parties will play a decisive role in determining whether tensions are truly de-escalating.

In many past instances, strong short squeezes have pushed prices up rapidly in a short period when the market held many high-leverage short positions with large volumes. This scenario remains a possibility if liquidation pressure continues to mount and capital inflows are sustained. The Bitcoin price structure on the 4H timeframe shows it is still fluctuating below the key resistance zone of $72,000–$74,000, which has repeatedly rejected rallies in March.

For the $80,000 short-term scenario to become possible, Bitcoin needs to—at the very least—break and hold above the $74,000 zone, while the geopolitical situation cools down on all sides. If these conditions are not met, the probability of a straight surge to $80,000 in five days will be quite low, as the market is still in a consolidation state after the sharp volatility in early February. 

This makes Bitcoin’s short-term performance more dependent on position structure rather than just the initial news. If institutional capital continues to flow in and the macro situation becomes more favorable, the rally could be extended. Conversely, if the price is rejected at the $72,000–$74,000 zone and demand weakens, a correction to lower support levels will be the more likely scenario before the market establishes a new trend.

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