Analyst Says: “There Will Be No Altcoin Season If BTC.D Reaches ATH”

Bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market has surged to levels not seen in four years, approaching the psychologically significant 75% threshold.

Despite Bitcoin itself trading slightly below its May 22 all-time high of $111,970, its dominance (BTC.D) has continued to climb, signaling an imbalanced recovery that heavily favors BTC over other digital assets.

What Is BTC Dominance (BTC.D)?

Bitcoin Dominance, abbreviated as BTC.D, measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It reflects the proportion of capital allocated to Bitcoin relative to all other digital assets. A rising BTC.D typically indicates that capital is consolidating in Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins, often signaling risk-off sentiment or institutional preference for BTC’s liquidity and regulatory clarity.

Conversely, a declining BTC.D suggests growing interest in altcoins and the potential for broader market speculation.

Bitcoin’s Market Share Nears Four-Year Highs

Bitcoin dominance surpassed 64% in early May, reaching its highest point since January 2021. Recent data from TradingView shows BTC.D oscillating between 64% and 65%, marking a sustained period of outperformance against altcoins.

Notably, this rise has occurred even as Bitcoin prices hover just below new record highs, suggesting capital is rotating toward BTC without needing fresh all-time peaks. 

Coingecko reports Bitcoin’s market capitalization now sits at $2.18 trillion, comprising 61% of the $3.54 trillion crypto market. When excluding BTC and ETH (TOTAL3), the altcoin sector is still battling to reclaim April’s $1.17 trillion resistance – a fight it is currently losing.

The BlockchainCenter Altcoin Season Index, which signals altcoin strength when 75% of the top 50 coins outperform BTC over 90 days, currently stands at 22 – deep in “Bitcoin Season” territory. The ongoing altcoin bear phase has now stretched over 1,200 days, the longest in the industry’s history.

Source: BlockchainCenter

Leading altcoins are still well off their all-time highs. Ether remains 64% below its November 2021 peak, while Solana is still down 36%. Meanwhile, TOTAL3 continues to be rejected at key resistance levels, casting doubt on a near-term rotation.

Capital Keeps Flowing Into Bitcoin

Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional capital has poured into these products at a scale previously unseen in crypto markets. Over $1 billion in net inflows have entered BTC-focused ETFs, reflecting a new wave of professional investor participation. Registered investment advisers and wealth managers now dominate ETF shareholder registries, according to CoinDesk’s 13F filings. 

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs recorded $228 million in net outflows in Q1 2025. Analysts interpret the disparity as a clear signal that institutions prefer Bitcoin as a “first exposure” asset due to its longer track record, perceived regulatory safety, and higher liquidity profile.

Source: CoinDesk

Bitcoin continues to benefit from its de facto regulatory clarity. It is widely classified as a commodity by U.S. agencies like the CFTC, unlike many altcoins still entangled in legal gray areas or enforcement actions. Financial News London reports that hedge funds such as Millennium Management and Brevan Howard have significantly expanded positions in Bitcoin ETFs since their approval. 

Meanwhile, the absence of regulatory approval for crypto basket ETFs, those that include altcoins, has limited broader institutional diversification, reinforcing Bitcoin’s primacy in regulated portfolios.

Bitcoin’s deep liquidity remains one of its most compelling attributes, especially during uncertain macroeconomic environments. 

Macro risks like renewed tariff conflicts, Fed policy ambiguity, and geopolitical flare-ups have prompted portfolio managers to seek refuge in the most liquid crypto asset available. Mitrade’s cross-exchange data confirms that during sharp market drawdowns, BTC.D actually increases, showing that traders offload altcoins first. 

This pattern has become self-reinforcing: the more Bitcoin dominates liquidity flows, the more cautious capital it attracts, further marginalizing altcoins during volatility spikes.

Read more: Trading with Free Crypto Signals in Evening Trader Channel

Can Altcoin Season Break Free?

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have entered a strong inflow streak – 15 consecutive days with approximately $837.5 million added since mid‑May, bringing cumulative 2025 inflows to over $3.3 billion. With BlackRock’s ETHA leading (~$600M), a successful U.S. listing could reorient institutional funds toward ETH and away from BTC.

On‑chain risk models from AInvest show a 90% probability that easing Fed policy could trigger an altcoin rally. The CME FedWatch Tool still assigns about a 4.6% chance of a rate cut in early June, but if cuts materialize later, historical patterns suggest smaller‐cap cryptos could rally in tandem.

Source: CME Group

Moreover, new thematic bets, like AI-linked tokens, real‑world‐asset plays, or industry‐specific protocols, may briefly decouple from BTC‑dominated trends. However, these sectors currently lack ETF channels or robust institutional exposure, making any breakout vulnerable without broader adoption drivers.

Still, note that even bullish technical signals like a golden cross on the TOTAL3 chart require new capital inflows to be meaningful, capital that remains concentrated in Bitcoin.

Structural advantages regulatory, liquidity, and institutional currently favor BTC. Unless one of those levers shifts, or a disruptive catalyst breaks the dominance trend, altcoin investors may continue to face tough headwinds as Bitcoin consolidates its role as crypto’s liquidity king.

Read more: When Will Altcoin Season Begin?

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